Australian researchers are melding mathematics with medicine to develop a computer program they hope will be able to predict whether a pregnant woman will give birth prematurely.

The scientists are studying hormone levels in blood samples provided by 500 pregnant women they believe are related to the timing of birth.

“We’re developing equations that describe how those hormones change in the pregnant woman’s body,” explained University of Newcastle endocrinologist Roger Smith.

“Once we’ve got those equations right, we think we’ll be able to predict the outcomes of pregnancies from early on.

“We can target the care to those that are at risk and allow those that aren’t at risk to enjoy happy, normal pregnancies free of medical intervention.”

Professor Smith is collaborating with biomedical engineer David Smith, of the University of Melbourne, to turn the equations into a computer program.

They hope one day obstetricians worldwide will be able to feed information gleaned from blood tests during pregnancy and ultrasounds of the foetus to determine women at risk of premature delivery.

“The only way we’ve got of predicting at the moment whether the woman’s high risk is if she’s had a previous baby born prematurely,” Prof Smith said in an interview.

Other research worldwide is investigating whether treating such women with progesterone during pregnancy can delay the birth.

Around 17,000 Australian babies are born prematurely each year, resulting in about 1300 deaths.

The babies that survive may have ongoing difficulties such as intellectual disability, sight and hearing problems.

They are also 50 times more likely to be born with cerebral palsy than babies born at full term.

“Whilst our neonatal intensive care doctors are getting better and better at looking after premature babies, there hasn’t been any improvement in the prevention of premature birth,” said Prof Smith, director of Newcastle University’s Mothers and Babies Research Centre.

Brisbane mother Deb Nowland, who has given birth to two children prematurely, said she wished the computer program was available during her pregnancies.

“I would have done anything to carry Amy and Patrick to term,” she said.

“There’s just so many extra concerns with premature babies that you have to think of.”

Ms Nowland gave birth to Patrick 10 weeks premature two years ago and Amy was born a week ago, five weeks early.

Luckily, their health complications have not been serious.

But other women haven’t been as lucky.

“There’s a lady in hospital at the moment. She’s 25 weeks’ pregnant,” Ms Nowland said.

“She’s been trying and trying to have children and has always lost the babies early.

“She’s had a hell of a pregnancy and when you’re faced with a premature baby as well, it’s very stressful.”

Prof Smith hopes his research will eventually be able to help such women.

He said the computer program may also be able to predict other women at risk of illnesses like pre-eclampsia, a high blood pressure condition in the mother which can cause reduced growth in the baby.

In severe cases, pre-eclampsia can lead to the death of the child and sometimes the mother.

The project has been granted $380,000 by the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Prof Smith hopes to have a working model of the computer program within two years.

Article from The Age